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Author Topic: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics  (Read 1865 times)

orth

Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« on: July 11, 2005, 06:26:00 pm »
We've began to track each roll a player makes when they craft. Just to see if there is indeed any issues of lack of randomness. I've created a quick web page showing the distribution of these rolls for every crafting attempt.      This is a live script.  Draw your own conclusions.      http://orth.ca/cgi-bin/cnr_rolls.pl
 

Zhofe

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RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2005, 06:41:00 pm »
So ... the crafting system isn't cheating then?

Oh well ...

Too bad though, because we could have given it a 3 day ban for exploiting the players. I bet that would shut up anyone complaining about the system ...
 

Leanthar

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2005, 06:45:00 pm »
Nice!  Thanks Orth.
 

Guardian 452

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2005, 07:43:00 pm »
The crafting system has Orth on their Payroll.... it's a cover up!!!


LOL

Just teasin'


Thanks for doing that Orth, nice to see the BIG picture.


G-452



 

KageKeeper

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2005, 07:44:00 pm »
That is very cool orth! Very cool.
 

jjkolb

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2005, 05:25:00 am »
Yes, but it doesn't indicate WHO got the 255 #1 rolls.  ;)

Seriously, this validates my assertion that if you look at everyone's rolls over a HUGE population (not just a relatively tiny segment, say Klaug's 15 minutes of smelting) that things have a way of evening out.

Thanks, Orth, for taking the time to illustrate this.
 

Andrios

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2005, 12:05:00 pm »
Once again Orth goes above and beyond the call of duty.
 It is nice to see how the rolls even out.  
Makes  it easier to take when you have rolled under 4 three times in a row.  
Thanks for the hard work! :)
 

Talan Va'lash

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2005, 03:38:00 pm »
http://www.layonaraonline.com/forums/photos/show-album.asp?albumid=165&photoid=3496

Graphed it.  Doesnt really look suspect... we will see more with more data.
 

Guardian 452

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2005, 05:47:00 pm »
Now what we need is a chart that can tell us how many times we have failed when we REALLY REALLY wanted to get it right.


Like how many times we have rolled 1's on 95% odds

and how many times we failed by just one number..... I hate that.. heh


;)


G-452

 

Filatus

RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2005, 05:57:00 pm »
Heh, it would be great if we could have a ranking list like what has been done with the tradeskill stats. Imagine a cleric of Deliar ranking lowest on his/her rolls.


 

General_Ski

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    RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
    « Reply #10 on: July 12, 2005, 06:32:00 pm »
    Well if you notice 1s roll increased by almost 100 at a time. About 30 of those are mine:P. I hope someone rolled good saves while I was rolling those ones.
     

    Talan Va'lash

    RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
    « Reply #11 on: July 12, 2005, 08:27:00 pm »
    Anyway, I never suspected that the roller was far off overall.  It just tends to have periods where you'll roll many 1s or many 20s in a row.

    I noticed this for the first time on another server where OOC comments were more tolerated, a common one to see was "//uh oh, here come the crits"  Many times after someone noticed a 20 or 2 rolled and said that, crits came in a flurry.

    Anyway, orths roll tracking proves (so far) that its pretty good overall.  Roll enough times and you'll end up at odds.
     

    orth

    RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
    « Reply #12 on: July 12, 2005, 08:32:00 pm »
    Quote
    General_Ski - 7/12/2005  9:32 PM

    Well if you notice 1s roll increased by almost 100 at a time. About 30 of those are mine:P. I hope someone rolled good saves while I was rolling those ones.


    Since we've began tracking rolls, you've rolled two ones in 35 attempts.
     

    RouterBlade

    RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
    « Reply #13 on: July 12, 2005, 08:41:00 pm »
    omg
    what can you not do? lol
    nice orth   :)
     

    Xerina

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      RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
      « Reply #14 on: July 12, 2005, 09:03:00 pm »
      Great job Orth. I seem to remember a topic about it on the bioware forums where the developers dicused the random roll generator they use their are only a few diffrent types. But that might have been in WoW forums back when I played WoW. The problem is we all see our rolls not the 1,000 other rolls the server made during our crafting session. It balances out over time for almost everyone, and it balances across all rolls on the server, but the server uses the same random table for all rolls not one for crafting one for combat, one for skills, etc..

      I tend to have allot better luck crafting when the server is realitvly low population versus crafting at prime time, I almost never succed during prime time, some igher level warrior is sucking up all the criticals and I'm keeping them alive by getting the 1's and 2's. I don't mind suffering for my craft of helping my party, but if you left me in town so I have nothing to do but craft, I'm afraid I'm not going to craft anymore to save you.  ;)
       

      General_Ski

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        RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
        « Reply #15 on: July 12, 2005, 10:06:00 pm »
        Gah... I guess I better learn to count.
         

        aragwen

        RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
        « Reply #16 on: July 13, 2005, 02:45:00 am »
        wow...you can see each person's individual rolls....
          That should make some interesting reading.
          One gets very complacent on rolls....95% chance does not mean you cannot fail. I run into the craft house to quickly make some arrows before going on quest. 20 clay...should be 20 molds with a 95% chance....only to roll a one...*grins* So much for making arrows quickly....back to digging clay...
         

        Germaine Lorn

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          RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
          « Reply #17 on: July 29, 2005, 04:31:00 pm »
          How impressed am I?  Very good work there Orth.

          Germaine Lorn.
           

          NEXUS7

          RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
          « Reply #18 on: September 27, 2005, 04:35:00 am »
          I have crafted a lot can never rember rolling a 20 but a shour got lots of 1's
           

          Serissa

          RE: Crafting Dice Roll Statistics
          « Reply #19 on: September 27, 2005, 05:30:00 am »
          I know I'm superstitious, but I like to do prayer, bless and bard song before an important craft.  Does it really get me that one extra point on a roll, or is it wishful thinking?
            Ayla
           

           

          anything