The World of Layonara
NWN Discussions and Suggestions => CNR Suggestions/Discussion => Topic started by: orth on July 11, 2005, 06:26:00 pm
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We've began to track each roll a player makes when they craft. Just to see if there is indeed any issues of lack of randomness. I've created a quick web page showing the distribution of these rolls for every crafting attempt. This is a live script. Draw your own conclusions. http://orth.ca/cgi-bin/cnr_rolls.pl
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So ... the crafting system isn't cheating then?
Oh well ...
Too bad though, because we could have given it a 3 day ban for exploiting the players. I bet that would shut up anyone complaining about the system ...
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Nice! Thanks Orth.
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The crafting system has Orth on their Payroll.... it's a cover up!!!
LOL
Just teasin'
Thanks for doing that Orth, nice to see the BIG picture.
G-452
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That is very cool orth! Very cool.
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Yes, but it doesn't indicate WHO got the 255 #1 rolls. ;)
Seriously, this validates my assertion that if you look at everyone's rolls over a HUGE population (not just a relatively tiny segment, say Klaug's 15 minutes of smelting) that things have a way of evening out.
Thanks, Orth, for taking the time to illustrate this.
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Once again Orth goes above and beyond the call of duty.
It is nice to see how the rolls even out.
Makes it easier to take when you have rolled under 4 three times in a row.
Thanks for the hard work! :)
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http://www.layonaraonline.com/forums/photos/show-album.asp?albumid=165&photoid=3496
Graphed it. Doesnt really look suspect... we will see more with more data.
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Now what we need is a chart that can tell us how many times we have failed when we REALLY REALLY wanted to get it right.
Like how many times we have rolled 1's on 95% odds
and how many times we failed by just one number..... I hate that.. heh
;)
G-452
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Heh, it would be great if we could have a ranking list like what has been done with the tradeskill stats. Imagine a cleric of Deliar ranking lowest on his/her rolls.
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Well if you notice 1s roll increased by almost 100 at a time. About 30 of those are mine:P. I hope someone rolled good saves while I was rolling those ones.
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Anyway, I never suspected that the roller was far off overall. It just tends to have periods where you'll roll many 1s or many 20s in a row.
I noticed this for the first time on another server where OOC comments were more tolerated, a common one to see was "//uh oh, here come the crits" Many times after someone noticed a 20 or 2 rolled and said that, crits came in a flurry.
Anyway, orths roll tracking proves (so far) that its pretty good overall. Roll enough times and you'll end up at odds.
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General_Ski - 7/12/2005 9:32 PM
Well if you notice 1s roll increased by almost 100 at a time. About 30 of those are mine:P. I hope someone rolled good saves while I was rolling those ones.
Since we've began tracking rolls, you've rolled two ones in 35 attempts.
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omg
what can you not do? lol
nice orth :)
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Great job Orth. I seem to remember a topic about it on the bioware forums where the developers dicused the random roll generator they use their are only a few diffrent types. But that might have been in WoW forums back when I played WoW. The problem is we all see our rolls not the 1,000 other rolls the server made during our crafting session. It balances out over time for almost everyone, and it balances across all rolls on the server, but the server uses the same random table for all rolls not one for crafting one for combat, one for skills, etc..
I tend to have allot better luck crafting when the server is realitvly low population versus crafting at prime time, I almost never succed during prime time, some igher level warrior is sucking up all the criticals and I'm keeping them alive by getting the 1's and 2's. I don't mind suffering for my craft of helping my party, but if you left me in town so I have nothing to do but craft, I'm afraid I'm not going to craft anymore to save you. ;)
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Gah... I guess I better learn to count.
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wow...you can see each person's individual rolls....
That should make some interesting reading.
One gets very complacent on rolls....95% chance does not mean you cannot fail. I run into the craft house to quickly make some arrows before going on quest. 20 clay...should be 20 molds with a 95% chance....only to roll a one...*grins* So much for making arrows quickly....back to digging clay...
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How impressed am I? Very good work there Orth.
Germaine Lorn.
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I have crafted a lot can never rember rolling a 20 but a shour got lots of 1's
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I know I'm superstitious, but I like to do prayer, bless and bard song before an important craft. Does it really get me that one extra point on a roll, or is it wishful thinking?
Ayla
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NO NO NO! You guys are missing the whole story! See, the crafting system works perfectly!
Until you spend a level-and-a-half hunting down ingredients, and you only have 1 set of them for your latest project. After spending a good amount of gold getting the stuff to get your ingredients ready, and you're at the last step, POOF! Yo've rolled a 2. You needed a 3 or higher.
Then, the world around you crumbles.
Marv-o-matic
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Can you check my rolls for Armolas Folian in the last 48 hours or so? Try as I might I can't seem to roll over a 5 or 6 when trying for Crystal Rod 2. I should have a 40 percent shot and have had many many many fails consecutively, most under a 5. I would not doubt that the rolls are accurate over time and people, but somewhere someone has got to be having marvelous luck at what they are attempting, cause luck is has fled far far from me. I had to log tonight or I would have been violating the no swearing rule.
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I continue to find it quite humourous how bad luck is remembered more then good luck.
Sure you missed the last 8 attempts at 40%.
Now the 17 times before that you made 10 - 3 of them at 35%.
So in the last week you've attempted 25 times and succeeded 10... hmm 40%
Not sure what sort of comment you're looking for, but it doesn't need months and months to balance out...
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orth - 5/9/2006 3:25 AM
I continue to find it quite humourous how bad luck is remembered more then good luck.
Sure you missed the last 8 attempts at 40%.
Now the 17 times before that you made 10 - 3 of them at 35%.
So in the last week you've attempted 25 times and succeeded 10... hmm 40%
Not sure what sort of comment you're looking for, but it doesn't need months and months to balance out...
Hah! The numbers never lie!
...except when they're planted by crooked cops trying to frame you for the murder of their wife.
er wait... that was the plot line for that cheesy 80's move I watched last week...
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NEXUS7 - 9/27/2005 7:35 AM
I have crafted a lot can never rember rolling a 20 but a shour got lots of 1's
Unless you've only got a 5% chance of success (or you manage an exceptional item), you'll never know if you rolled a 20, because the die roll isn't visible on successes.
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All I know is that in Valoric's attempts at making choking powder, he has 12 tries and 12 failures, at 25%. Starting to annoy me, while Valoric doesn't seem phased.
Highest roll so far (and the only one above 8 ) has been 13.
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good info for those stat majors...i just cuss and wave my arms a lot! Helps! But it galls you to load up the furnace on a 85% And lose it all, then turn around and hit 2 out of 4 at 20%! The good times should over shadow the lousy rolls....i know..dig more sand!
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Just aquestion about rolls and the skills. When I dice a wis check. Is it a random check or does it actualy take my 15 natural and +1 belt of cunning ( yes its cunning but it still gives +1 wis) into account?
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Your 15 natural and +1 from the belt should make your modifier a total of +3 on your 1d20 wis check.
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K thanks thats what I wanted to know.