The World of Layonara
The Layonara Community => General Discussion => Topic started by: curtwise on October 12, 2006, 09:49:55 PM
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I seriously would like to know out of the rolls that i made on 10/12/06 between around 8:30 to 10: 00 pm PDT
how many were over 6 or even over 10? I've tried to look at my dice several times to see if there are any numbers over 10?
The next best thing to do is please dont show me the number i roll so i need not wonder why only 1 and 5's show up? I would rather it just be win or lose...but to aguish over each losing number....dang!
I am using a 1D20 right?
:)
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Aaaah, curtwise, I do believe you found my d20 that I use every time I visit the craft halls!
I'd love someone who is mathematically minded to tell me what the odds are for successfully crafting something but 1 in 13 times when I had a 40% chance of doing it?!!?
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the joys of d20
*waits for L to come sing the praises of D20*
;)
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also keep in mind the dreaded RNG. It isn't really all that random, its more "random".
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A lot of people is doubting that the random number generator is so very "random" in the short term. Maybe a implemention problem? Or maybe something else?
But, as logged on a specific page (can't remember it on top of my head for the moment), in the long run, the rolls do even out. Oh, the page is for the crafting rolls.
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if you really want something crafted it will make you fail but if you don't need it at all it will succseed, simple logic :P
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Yes! That's sooo true!
I'm glad someone else is confirming this!
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The rolls do even out. I started Gem crafting, with a 30% chance of success, and ended up making 6 rings successfully.....one after the other.
Needless to say, I praised my loaded 1D20 and placed it on the alter to Folian.
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I rekon I'm the master of bad rolls! Truely!!
Most of my mates online can probably tell you how many times I've almost put my fist through the gyprock or screamed in frustration (all OOC naturally).
Stupid thing is I still actually enjoy crafting...go figure that out!!
Anyway I've asked people if there are flaws, if there are any tips for better rolls etc.
I've had some people state that you need to wait a while before clicking the final 'craft-it'. I've had people rekon you need to make practice rolls, twice on the dice bag before attempting a craft. You name it I rekon I've tried it.
The only thing I am certain of is that I have my best luck at 60%. Yes, that is correct!! The minute i hit 70% it's time to bite my fingernails with every click of the 'Craft It". Now it could simply be a trend with me but 60's the number.
As for saving throws and skill checks...hahahaha...it doesnt change much there either. But that usually makes for interesting events or great laughter.
Cheers,
Polak76
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Polak76 - 10/13/2006 4:51 PM
As for saving throws and skill checks...hahahaha...it doesnt change much there either. But that usually makes for interesting events or great laughter.
I hear you. The day I roll over a 3 for a bluff check is the day I go and buy my sure-to-be-the-winner lotto ticket!!!
How can AI such as the Random Number Generator have such an evil sense of humour?
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Very interesting, Polak76. I usually find my best rolls at 70%. :)
(Erh... not counting with 100%, of course ;) )
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Pseudonym - 10/12/2006 11:42 PM
Aaaah, curtwise, I do believe you found my d20 that I use every time I visit the craft halls!
I'd love someone who is mathematically minded to tell me what the odds are for successfully crafting something but 1 in 13 times when I had a 40% chance of doing it?!!?
That one is a bit of work so I'll give you one thats easier. The chances of failing 12 in a row at 40% are 4096 in 244140625.
The NWN random number generator does average out pretty well but methinks it does this by when it gets too far to one side (rolled a lot of lows or highs) it forces high or low rolls to get its average back on track heh.
Hence the critical miss or critical hit bursts you'll see in combat from time to time. This is more noticable on hardcore rules where monsters can crit on you (you really notice it when a band of orcs lands 4 crits in a row on you heh.)
Edit: I'm wrong thats succeeding at 12 in a row at 40% failing would be 531441 in 244140625 so not AS bad but still 0.002176782336 to 1. I wouldn't bet on those odds.
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At least we have the random number generator, flawed though it is *wink* (my d20 is loaded to get only 3's and 4's ;)). It's better than rolling a d20 in RL, taking a picture of it, then submitting it on the forums, waiting for a GM to check, then signing back in and a GM handing you the finished product (or taking your supplies away). I do believe that there would be no crafters left if that was our system.
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Be mindful of how many people are on when you're rolling...as our group of 15 on quest a while back can tell you, fewer people do funny things to the RNG. Like, say, rolling saves and four people getting 1's...in a row....
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crazedgoblin - 10/13/2006 2:40 AM
if you really want something crafted it will make you fail but if you don't need it at all it will succseed, simple logic :P
The more deadly the trip is to get the CNR, the more likely you muff your crafting roll.
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The problem is those successes... If one succeeds 6 50% things in row, one starts to think "Great!" and not "Awww! the RNG is broken!". ;)
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....meanwhile.....while youv'e got your 6 50% successes.....some poor bugger somewheres just getten 6 80% failures.
The Smart vs Dumb balance must weigh out. *chuckles*
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Kill the Roll Hogger!!
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Which is why when I make a bronze sheild at 15% on Shri, I shake my head sadly and think
"some poor sod somewhere just lost a soul strand"
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I had my character's dicebag replaced at least once after a particularly bad string of rolls on a quest or two. Sadly, the replacements must have come from the same batch, because they're all pretty much rotten.
I borrowed someone else's dice once and rolled two 20's in a row once...but then they revolted and ran back to their owner.
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LynnJuniper - 10/13/2006 7:36 AM
Which is why when I make a bronze sheild at 15% on Shri, I shake my head sadly and think
"some poor sod somewhere just lost a soul strand"
That was probably Melanna... 5 SS's in her last 8 deaths and she's only at level 9. Quit making shields! You're killing her! lol!
But in all seriousness, sometimes it seems like the only rolls we're getting are the low ones, but as someone else pointed out, we easilly forget all the successes we have when the RNG is rolling good for us. Maybe it is because we only see the numbers for the failing rolls that our attention is more focussed on them, or maybe it's just Human nature to see the negative more than the positive.
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My only beef with the dice rolling evening out through the whole server is, that its not realy logical. If you are let say at 70% you should logicaly get close to 7 out of 10 but I have had time where i had 1 out of 10 even at 70% Now people will say that it evened out because someoen else got the dice thing right at the same moment ( thats what I understand out of it) But they did not dice my thing I did so why do they get my sucess :D
I'm ranting lol No truly even witht he explanation L or Dorg gave the other time I'm still unsure of the syste as by pure logic 70% is 70%
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I'll remind everyone of this counter page: http://orth.ca/cgi-bin/cnr_rolls.pl
Which shows the die roll stats for CNR attempts. Sadly at the moment, it is only showing rolls from today, which is not enough of a sample. I sent a message to orth to have that get the data from the archived rolls instead. When it gets changed, you'll see the distribution of rolls is pretty even across the board.
@Hellblazer: The thing about statistics is that a 70% success rate is something that falls out over a very large sampling. Expecting 7 successes in 10 is not practical. Though possible, it is far from guaranteed. In 10,000 attempts, however, you should expect to see something very close to 7,000 successes, give or take.
The thing is that rolling dice is a random event. As such: a) in order to compensate for the randomness, only a very large sampling of rolls will reflect the ideal statistical success rate b) (this is important) in any given set of rolls, there is nothing preventing a certain roll from appearing more than once before another result appears at all. For a d20, in 20 rolls, the number 5 (for example) might appear 2-3 times and the number 17 may not appear at all.
And of course, they're not your dice as such, but everyone's dice. Everyone's using effectively the same random number generator, so while you may roll two 5's in a row, there's probably some other rolls in between that (again) average out statisitcally over a large sample.
EDIT: This the above link has been fixed to show the overall die rolls
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Hellblazer - 10/13/2006 9:50 AM My only beef with the dice rolling evening out through the whole server is, that its not realy logical. If you are let say at 70% you should logicaly get close to 7 out of 10 but I have had time where i had 1 out of 10 even at 70%
Sometimes, you just have a bad day. Other times, you'll have a great day -- for example, Zug hit 3 straight on a 50% chance for someone who wanted some silver smelting done. What I find humorously peculiar is the way the luck seems to run... I seem to do worse than my averages at weapon crafting, but hit on low- to mid-percentages at alchemy more often than I should.
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That's only one in four, Faldred.
Nailing seven poison sacks at 30% is... .02187% odds.
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Stephen_Zuckerman - 10/13/2006 11:17 AM
That's only one in four, Faldred.
Nailing seven poison sacks at 30% is... .02187% odds.
One in eight, actually. It was the most recent example of a "lucky streak" that I could recall.
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Dorganath - 10/13/2006 10:19 AM I'll remind everyone of this counter page: http://orth.ca/cgi-bin/cnr_rolls.pl
Which shows the die roll stats for CNR attempts. Sadly at the moment, it is only showing rolls from today, which is not enough of a sample. I sent a message to orth to have that get the data from the archived rolls instead. When it gets changed, you'll see the distribution of rolls is pretty even across the board.
Fixed this just for reference.
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Dorganath - 10/13/2006 10:19 AM @Hellblazer: The thing about statistics is that a 70% success rate is something that falls out over a very large sampling. Expecting 7 successes in 10 is not practical. Though possible, it is far from guaranteed. In 10,000 attempts, however, you should expect to see something very close to 7,000 successes, give or take.
aye I know for having work with statistic before, I was just having fun :D the bigger tha sample the more accurate result you will get but always keep in mind a 2 to 5% of error.
Still having some difficulty to understand that page but thats just me, althought would be nice to see the dice/result (thats already tehre) / #attemps.
That might give a more caccurate feel of the succes rates.