Skill rolls - (Need 14+ why failing 12 times in a row and counting?)

[Philip of Altdorf]

Not sure where to put this - assuming it's a bioware problem.

It goes like this.

Need a 16 or more to succeed.  Should fail 3 times per 1 success.  Actually fail something like 10 times or more per success.  I am aware that failures are more annoying so easy to forget successes.

So I wrote it down.

Need an 11+ to succeed.  Fail 8 times succed once.
Need a 14+. Fail 12 times and still not succeded yet.

Within the game itself this could be down to a string of bad luck.  But within the Tradeskills area this seems to be happening all the time.  Similarly with % stuff.  "25% chance should average 1 in 4 success rates.  This just doesn't happen.

Ultimately this could be an unlucky abberation on my part.  Anyone else got similiar effects?

[OOwitch]

its not just you, you just need to keep in mind if you are supposed to have a 50% on something that it means each roll by itself has a possibility of coming out the way you want it.  each roll is unto its own.  so as much as its annoying to fail alot, it shouldnt be suprising.

[Fian Bearsark]

There's an old thread somewhere on this very subject. The concensus seems to be that no matter how "random" a number generator the NWN software has, it is not going to be completely random. It seems to occasionally hit periods of high or low rolls or tends to repeat rolls. Also, it may do this across the server, so that you may be rolling 1's in theCraft Hall and someone else is getting 20s in combat; its like the software is balancing out the range of probabilities across the server.

On another server I fought with a character who had Improved Crit, my character did not. I actually started rolling more Crits in battle with him fighting next to me! We even rolled the same Threat Numbers and Critical Numbers. It was like the number generator got stuck in a sense and kept repeating rolls. I have seen this with multiple monster combatants as well.

[Philip of Altdorf]

eeek

Well I guess I might abandon crafting.  Takes too long to gather ingredients just to have them wasted multiple times in a row.

Thanks for the repies though.

[Talan Va'lash]

I suggest you stick to trying to craft things when you have a 50-70% chance of success.  You will have much more luck.


Edit: btw, crafting is not easy.  especially getting started.  What makes it a lot easier to start is picking a craft that matches your abilities.  i.e. if you have a high Wisdom and Constitution you will be good at cooking, if you have a high dexterity and intellegence you will be good at tinkering.

[ForgottenCreature]

i say pick a craft that matches your low ability points, more xp and you will be able to obtain higher crafting levels that way

[FlameStrike]

No point in wasting too many ingredients for a single or couple successes, when you can have fairly good XP for an item with 50-70% chance like Talan suggested...
 A success is always a success, and it always gives XP unless your chance of making the item is 100%, in my opinion.

[Gulnyr]

And just because you've had a string of failures doesn't mean you'll always have a string of failures.  Yesterday, I made some pies.  Normally, I get maybe 1 out of 5 (at 40% chance), but this time I made 5 straight.  The streaks go both ways.

[Talan Va'lash]

I was thinking about this while crafting today... because i'm a nerd... and was about to do a large batch of scrolls.  So i kept a tally of successes and failures.

I attemped 17 raw parchments at 70%
succeeded 11/17 which is 65% (rounded to the nearest %)

I then attempted 11 scrolls from those parchments
succeeded 7/11 which is 64% (rounded to the nearest %)

In conclusion... It all averages out when you do enough.  Thats what statistics are, they dont describe individual events, they describe overall trends.

I say stop crying. I had a 35% chance to succeed, and I succeeded roughly once per 4 crafts. (alchemy) considering I got 26 xp each craft, thats an awesome deal.

[Thunder Pants]

welll you need to remember that each roll is a roll unto itself, it doesn't mater what you rolled previously 25% is just that, 25% on each roll, doing it 4 times doesn't change the chance of rolling that 16 on any of the subsiquent rolls

[Rehevkor]

In the years I have been playing NWN, the most common d20 roll I have encountered is 7. I have seen it literally thousands of times. The d20 function in NWN also seems to be weighted toward the low end, since I see far more 1s than 20s, although each has the same chance of happening. I keep an eye out for both. I may get a 20 in a combat roll once or twice per day, but often I see strings of 3 or 4 ones in a row. I also see the same thing from enemies, who sometimes roll 7 or less a dozen times in a row, same as players.

A piece of software will never roll like a real die, unfortunately, so strange things are going to happen. It sucks, but there's nothing we can do about it.

[Doc-Holiday]

The system has deicated Weston Pendrot as it's balancer

Every time he does a spot roll... someone makes their DT save

Every time he rolls a 1.... someone crafts an exception gloves of the furry

Imagine the wonderous things that would be crafted if we only put Weston in a position of power!

WHY! WE WOULD BE NIEGH INVINCIBLE!

All those poor desicion rolls would lead to peace and prosperity!

And just imagine! If Weston did make a 20... Blood would fail his save vs heart attack

[Wintersheart]

Rolf would like to hire Weston when making wands....

[Frendh]

http://www.layonaraonline.com/forums/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=15398&posts=21

[Gilrod]

I like trying for lower percentage rolls in crafting items.  To me it is like gambling and there is a thrill of a success.

Actually, I hate gambling with money (I am VERY risk adverse when it comes to something I have so little of), but "craft gambling" can be fun as long as you are not doing it for success on higher level gem cutting (ask Ar7 when he rolled a "1" with a 95% chance on a btach of diamonds -- that was a long time ago).

Crafting is all about the perspective you bring to it.  If you want it to be easy or highly profitable instantly, then you probably do not want to be a crafter.  If you don't mind being a little patient, it is worth it.  I just like knowing that I can make magical rings (even if they are not very good ones).

Have fun!

[silverblades]

Most times if I want the item I fail. If I dont care if I make the item I will succeed most all the time. I make batches of bows I normally suceed every time. Its when i need the money to sell it thats when I fail. Its all in your head!!

[Tedulas]

Gah try this:

50% chance smelting copper ore into ingots:
Successful I got 8 out of 50 ores.

WOW!

[EdTheKet]

Please check out the Crafting Dice Roll Statistics which track the serverwide crafting rolls.
    http://www.layonaraonline.com/forums/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=15398&posts=21

[Doc-Holiday]

Remember... your % chance of success is PER item.. not PER 10 or 100...

so a 50% means you can stand to make 10 bows.. or nothing at all

just the same with a 95%

If there is a chance for failure.. you will.. simple as that

Orth.. thanks your working overtime and I appreciate it. This is again... above and beyond your duties.