Global Warming

[kenty191]

It might be working in tandem with a natural cycle, but given that (as I said), current levels are geologically unprecedented (nothing like this has happened, as far as we can tell, since just after the dinosaurs checked out), I think the jury is just about ready to render a guilty verdict on humankind.  We can try for community service, mind you - certainly is preferable to the other sentence that could be passed.

The only other issue to consider then, as I am insistent on playing devils advocate here, is the interplay of these factors, both natural and man made. How much of each is contributing to temperature change? Again I would argue it is difficult to scientifically seperate complex variables with so many confounds.

[darkstorme]

true however even still with the amount of land surface on the face of the planet not to mention that all oceans are connected so still the most i see effects i see is a mild loss of land on all continents. however this is just speculation... for all we know a flood could happen killing quite a few people in the process... however only time will tell *shrugs*

*ahem*



The red is what sections of Florida would be under water with a six-meter rise in sea levels.

The city of Boston (all of it) is only one meter above sea level at high tide.

And calculations indicate that if Greenland alone were to melt, the seas, worldwide, would rise seven meters.

So if you consider the eastern seaboard, the state of Florida, a good chunk of Western Europe, and huge sections of India, Indonesia, Japan, China, and other pan-Asian countries "a mild loss of land"... then yes, the ice caps melting is no big deal.

[Stephen_Zuckerman]

I think I'm going to leave this to Darkstorme, as the man has a handle on spreading the facts.

Let's not forget you'd lose a healthy portion of Western California, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and, well... Anywhere else that has a beach.

I think what the discussion needs (and has gotten, it seems, ONLY from Darkstorme!) is for people to cite their sources on any information that is even slightly arguable.

[darkstorme]

The only other issue to consider then, as I am insistent on playing devils advocate here, is the interplay of these factors, both natural and man made. How much of each is contributing to temperature change? Again I would argue it is difficult to scientifically seperate complex variables with so many confounds.

A fair argument.  I'm willing to concede that the entirety global climate change has human activity at its root.  However, to quote from National Geographic (emphasis mine):

The current rate of warning is unprecedented, however. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years, suggesting it probably is not a natural occurrence. And most scientists believe the rise in temperatures will in fact accelerate. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.

So even if we're not wholly to blame, the increasingly evident situation is that we've still screwed up big time, and something that might once have been a natural cycle has been warped and distorted away from where it might have swung back.  The melting of the ice caps and tundra (and subsequent loss of global albedo, as above) sets the stage neatly for a runaway greenhouse effect.. and nothing in the world can adapt to that.  (Well, maybe some lithovoric extremophile bacteria, but I don't really think that fits with our beautiful green planet's image.)

Edit: I should add as an addendum that a 3-degree rise will melt Greenland in its entirety... which has the catastrophic effects mentioned in my previous post.

[kenty191]

I really do enjoy a good debate but the need for sleep is overwhelming me now. I would say there have been some valid and well thought out responses here, which I'm suprised about given the opening statements. Though I assume they were given as a means to provoke this debate.

I hope to continue this when my eyes can stay open! Night All!

Oh...one last thing to ponder:

It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years...

I assume the wording of this suggests at some point in history this occured. Could it be argued history repeats itself?

[darkstorme]

It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years...

I assume the wording of this suggests at some point in history this occured. Could it be argued history repeats itself?

It could... but the history in question dates from before the last meteor-induced ice age.  The last time (and only times we've unearthed) that the earth warmed or cooled so dramatically and rapidly was after a chunk of rock a mile wide smashed into its surface at forty thousand miles an hour, give or take.

Since an impetus of that scale is not evident (and you can bet, if it happened, it would be), we have to look for some different causation, something that can throw a ton of stuff into the atmosphere in a (geologically speaking) short period of time.  Now, what's been pumping weird chemicals into the atmosphere in the last hundred years or so?  *smiles tightly*

In addition to this, the further back geological records go, the harder it is to be absolutely sure of their accuracy (as exposure in the interim might skew results.)  So the wording is far more likely a hedging of bets than a statement that it happened in the past (since, as I said, the only such climate shifts occurred after some sort of celestial influence - and I'm not talkin' Aasimar, here.)

[Hotaru]

in response to Darkstorme's evidence... noooooo not japan T_T *snicker* only time will tell... time will tell if we wise up and try to stop or at least reduce the rate of toxins emitted into our atmosphere. and only time will tell if the ice actually does melt... i mean worse comes to worse we end up with a giant water ball and are forced to live on giant platforms, which would be possible there's a dude off the coast of Mexico i think it is that has an island built of water bottles and he grows food on it

[darkstorme]

Yeah, but then we wind up in wars over tankers of oil and fresh water, and we wind up having to rely on Kevin Costner to save us all.

And the ice is already melting, so we'd best get a move on.

As for the gentleman off the coast of Mexico... well, we're running into an oil shortage hand-over-fist as well, so plastic water bottles are likely to be in short supply.  In addition... I strongly suspect that the billion people in developing countries who will be flooded out will have access to neither platforms nor water bottles from which to build their little floating paradises.

[Hotaru]

...i have this to say in response.... "SAVE US KEVIN COSTNER!!!" *snicker*  personally i say we do what we can to help prevent further damage. and do what we can to repair the damage already caused

[AeonBlues]

OMG, politics on the layonara forum.  I thought this was against the rules or something.

Recently poler bears was added to the list of threatened species.  Generally a law suite has to be argued in court in order for a species to get added to that list.  It seems bush does not ever believe that a species is endangered until a judge orders him to believe so...  Amazing how powerful judges are like that huh!  But he did not need a judge to tell him about the polar bears.  The reason is, he did not want the publicity from the fact that the polar bears environment is literally melting under their paws.  The polar bears are the first subspecies to be officially listed as threatened due to global warming.

Now I have been a tree hugging anarchist environmentalist all my adult life. I can tell you about the evils of deforestation, bioengineering, PCBs, nuclear waste, the depleting ozone layer, green house gases, human overpopulation, republicans that are honest about not caring, and democrats that lie and say that they do care when in reality they are just a bunch of corporate prostitutes.  

What I have come to believe with great sincerity is that we are on the Titanic.  And you know, it doesn't matter what you do on the Titanic.  You can argue that the ship is so huge and incredible that it is impossible to sink.  You can pretend the ship is not sinking.  You can run around yelling about it.  You can read a book.  You can have a drink.  You can play a song on the piano.   You can sit around and play video games. In the end, you will still be dead on the bottom of the ocean with everyone else.

AeonBlues

[Skywatcher]

Well Darkstorme I really appreciate your passion and conviction on this issue and your willingness to back it up with all the support you have presented.  I really don't want to get into an arguement since that's not what the forums are all about.  The fact is though (and I won't through a bunch of links at you since that just gets to a battle of links) that there are some very prominent scientists that disagree very strongly with those that claim the issue is a slam dunk.  The fact is also true that this issue is being used as political leverage by lots of people with particular political ideologies and to me that makes it seem fishy when you have scientist lining up by political ideology.  So I would just like to politely disagree with your assertion that there is a guaranteed tragedy ahead of us if we don't stop living like we are.  Besides who says polar bears wouldn't apprecaite it getting warmer?  See the attached.  

[darkstorme]

*smiles*  I enjoy a good debate as much as Kenty.  By all means, provide all the links you wish, and I will take them into consideration.  I deliberately chose the most nonpartisan links I could find, from different countries and different news agencies, to make my point.

I am not at all close-minded about the issue, but the evidence seems to be piling up in favour of human causation, and the scientists arguing against it are of decreasing prominence.  I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but the 2007 UN report was pretty thoroughly damning, and backed up by very, very well-researched fact.

As I said, though, make me a counteroffer.

Edit:  I would argue, Aeonblues, that this isn't politics.  One of the principal arguments lined up against me is that, in fact, it is, but it's more a debate over whether or not the science involved is valid, and whether it is an issue to be concerned with.

[AeonBlues]

The golden rule of politics:  The person with the gold rules.  The oil and coal barons hire prominent scientists to work their propaganda machines.

I am still waiting for someone, anyone to reference me to any scientist that discredits global warming, and has no economic ties to the industries that produce green house gases.

AeonBlues

[Chongo]

I don't usually respond to anything political on a gaming forum with anything more then a sigh, as it can only end in tears....but I gotta....
 
 
 Time Magazine 1974
 
 Another Ice Age? | TIME
 
 
 Time Magazine 2006
 
 Global Warming Heats Up | TIME
 
 
 A few simple statements:
 
 - Don't get caught up in temporary hype and publicity, rise above it and act locally
 - Understand that the spectrum of what we're dealing with is far beyond our current scope of research or data. We are too young to get the big picture, and very few models are shown accurately.
 - Realize that organizations dealing with these issues need to sustain their budgets, and with society and politics the way they are today, this means sensationalizing things. Be aware of the issues... they *are* issues. But also realize that it's sensationalized for maintaining budgets on otherwise neglected programs. No real fault of their own mind you.
 - Things are warming up however, read the DARPA reports, you may be enlightened that the 'evil oppressive' USA is highly aware and aggressive (in the labs at least for now) about these issues. Educate yourself, have facts.
 - We aren't going to significantly influence this but it's high time we set some precedents for the future, realizing that we do impact things and can make a local difference. It's like community motivation, everyone just needs to start.
 
 
 I've been on expeditions to several parts of the Andes in the past 5 years. And yeah, the glaciers are melting at an abyssmal rate. It gets me down. How this factors into big pictures? I don't know nor do propose to be at the forefront of college student omniscient awareness of all things political, sociological, nor environmental.
 
 But it is important that you start taking steps in your own home, and bloody research the right ways to do it. Starbucks spends millions on wind and solar power when they could've aided the environment a heck of a lot more by buying carbon emission shares for 1/1000th of the cost. Or so someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows informed me. See what I mean? Har.
 
 There's a lot of misinformation out there. Be humble and do your own research.  Then get some consensus, then act locally.  Until you act locally you're just another spout of soundbytes.  Tend to your own garden first.

[Skywatcher]

When I was working on my master's degree my advisor, a very wise man, told me something that rang true and has since been born out in many circumstances.

When you get a Bachelor's degree you think you know everything.

When you get a Master's degree you realize that you really don't know anything.

When you get a doctorate you realize that neither does anyone else.  

There is still a huge amount we don't understand about this beautiful and marvelous world we live in.  Let's take care of it as we continue to learn as much as we can.

[Boxcar]

For those that haven't seen it, I would suggest viewing "An Inconvenient Truth."

And then I would suggest viewing the BBC documentary "The Great Global Warming Swindle" which can be seen free at Google Video.

There is merit to hearing differing viewpoints on the issue.

[darkstorme]

I've seen both of those, Boxcar - excellent recommendations.

[Gunther]

This may sound a bit sociopathic, but I dont think the earth will really miss mankind a whole lot.  If we end up ending ourselves, maybe something better will come along next time.  To be even more pessismistic, I think we'll be lucky if we last long enough for global warming and its ensuing hazards to end us as a species.

I'm fun at Christmas parties.  Really.

[lonnarin]

This may sound a bit sociopathic, but I dont think the earth will really miss mankind a whole lot.  If we end up ending ourselves, maybe something better will come along next time.  To be even more pessismistic, I think we'll be lucky if we last long enough for global warming and its ensuing hazards to end us as a species.

Indeed!  Ever play Fallout?  As I said, I look forward to the new wars between the vault people and the twisted radiocative mutant barbarians!

[hawklen]

This may sound a bit sociopathic, but I dont think the earth will really miss mankind a whole lot.  If we end up ending ourselves, maybe something better will come along next time.  To be even more pessismistic, I think we'll be lucky if we last long enough for global warming and its ensuing hazards to end us as a species.

I'm fun at Christmas parties.  Really.

I agree. That was my main point. Only humans care The earth doesnt care about us. It will happily spin around till the sun goes nova and destroys the solar system. Give or take a few billion years.

And who says there isnt life on Venus? (earlier darkstorme post) Just not in the form we can recognize

I still have hopes for FTL so we can spread out and ruin other planets.