Math Question...Odds

[merlin34baseball]

Ok, a player has a chance to see the soul mother everytime they die.  Level vs 1d100 right?

Can someone smarter than me tell me the chance (odds is what I'm looking for like one in 2.5 million or something along those lines) of a ninth level character getting four consecutive DTs on four consecutive deaths?  Tyrians wonderful husband just did it and I think the odds are incredibly long... and I need to chear him up by telling him what an increadible feat he has just accomplished... (trying to get him to play the lottory!  Seems to be incredibly lucky right now, NOT!)

Thanks!

[Variable]

It doesn't come out nicely but its around 1/15241.6

*shows work*
.09^4 or .09*.09*.09*.09

So its a very low chance but its possible

[merlin34baseball]

Ah thank you, always wondered how to figure that, thanks for showing the work...

Should chear him up immensly knowing he did something that would only happen once in 15000 trys!
Or maybe not...

[merlin34baseball]

OK another one...

How about 5 out of 6?  He died again.  Is this unusual?  I mean it seems a bit harsh...

[vgn]

Unfortunately you really can't look at statistics this way.
Each time he dies he has a 9/100 or 9% chance of a token. It is completely independant and having received 4 in a row you can't ask what is the probability that he could get 4 in a row as it's already happened.

Now you can ask without tying it to this series of deaths, what is the probability that a 9th level character on layonara will have 4 consecutive token deaths. That would in fact be 6561/100000000 or 0.00006561 or .006561%
Now, the trick though is that is the probability at any given time that a character of nineth level will get those 4 consecutive tokens. Everytime a 9th level character dies this probability applies and 0.006561% of the time that death will be the start of a run of 4 tokens in a row. That's not very much, but at the same time, if you look at how many times a 9th level character has died over the course of Layonara it is not unreasonable at all to see this probability could be realized.

[Filatus]

Yep, gotta take the total amount of deaths during being lvl 9 and then look at the probabilty for four consecutive deaths giving four DT's.

[Filatus]

Which basically means that when you're dealing with a PC who dies more the chance for the improbable increases.

This by the way is the big secret behind Nostradmus' predictions.

[Dorganath]

Of course, the other thing that's impossible to predict but which must be taken into account is the fact that while Soul Strand loss depends on a random chance, random numbers are being generated all the time on the server.
  If your random chance of losing a Soul Strand was dependent upon your own personal random number generator or effectively your own dice rolling on the table and used by no one else, then the odds of 4 rolls 9 or lower in a row would be pretty darned low. However, given that your 4 or 5 rolls are just a handful out of thousands, it's not really all that exceptional that 4 rolls out of thousands would fall at 9 or lower.  
  In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the chances are about....9%  

[Rayenoir]

Also consider that the NWN diceroller is far from an actual random number.

[crazedgoblin]

the NWN diceroller follows sods law most of the time

[Wraithdur]

you can say that again.
one of my characters got a death token at lvl 4, what's the lowest lvl you've got a death token?

[Creighton]

Guys (& Gals, as the case may be), I appreciate the math lesson, and the elucidation of the laws of probabability.  However, this is something that I've been kicking around in my head for the last five or six days, and I agree with you all; like it or not, it's right.  

The fact that my character has gotten the death tokens isn't so much what bothers me; it's the fact that stuff that I was walking over at level 7 is absolutely destroying me at level 9.  I understand that the challenge level goes up as you gain level, but to the point to where I might as well be rambling around the Rift, as the stuff at Zainge River can kill me just as quickly?

Don't get me wrong; I'm not griping, I'm filing no grievance, or any somesuch like that; I'm just a little at odds as to how to play a character that, even considering his IG experience, cannot possibly build any self-confidence.  

I'll roleplay this issue out; Creighton will start being heavily cautious no matter WHERE he's going...but that's not really the way the character's personality is...I have decided, however, that his wife and forthcoming child will change his views on "dying for the good fight" and all that other guff...and if my luck continues as it has, I will retire the character, as I believe he would stay home and be a father rather than risk leaving his child an orphan.

I do have to say this:  This mod has challenged me to RP in a way I did not expect; that in itself makes it a mod worth playing.

Thanks for listening, and again, for the mathematics:)