The combat roll

[Delta7]

I keep telling myself to do an indepth study on this. But I'm lazy so I will just come out and ask. Have the combat rolls been adjusted on Layo? It seems I roll an unusual amount of low numbers. Particularly  1's and 3's. I am convinced that the combat rolls have been adjusted lower. I roll far more low numbers than high numbers. I'm talking about the base roll before adjustments. I have seen four 3's rolled consecutivly followed by a couple 1's then a handful of numbers below 10. An occasional 15 or 17 then a whole bunch of low numbers again. Correct me if I am wrong but there should be an equal chance of rolling any number between 1-20. 5% chance in fact. This might not be as noticeable at higher levels as characters get bonuses to their combat roll. However at level 1-5 it is very significant.

[Leanthar]

This 'low number' roll/issue comes up every few months. Orth has even created outputs to show that it is not the way people seem to see it. But no...we have not adjusted the random roll or anything like that, to including combat and crafting rolls.

[Ar7]

You have to remember that you are not the only one rolling on the server, there are other players as well. So if you are getting all the low numbers, somebody is having a very good time crafting or rolling criticals  

And here is the thing orth created that Leanthar was talking about.

http://orth.ca/cgi-bin/cnr_rolls.pl

[miltonyorkcastle]

It's just the facts that computer generated rolling is not truly random, but even still, I can say that it really just depends on the day.  some days I crit every other hit, and other days it seems like every 20 hits (and my character has a rather good crit range with greatsword).  overall, you will avaerage out, as orth's output shows, to fall into the right percentages.

[Faldred]

Yeah, overall it averages out, yet it seems to have a sense of humor as to when it chooses to do so.  I'm sure it really does even out in the end, but it feel like I always get on a "cold streak" in crafting, for example, just when I'm working on the materials I risked my neck to get, and then get 10 straight successes at 40% on items made from things you can almost find just laying about... *sigh*

[Doc-Holiday]

Fail a craft roll

save a life

[miltonyorkcastle]

I guess I've killed a lot of people *snickers*

[Faldred]

Doc-Holiday - 4/28/2006  11:19 AM

Fail a craft roll

save a life

Then get yourself killed collecting new CNR materials.  It's vicious cycle, I tell ya!

 

[Icurus]

Strange that this topic just came up.

I swear I rolled pathetic yesterday.

1) I rolled a 1 against Kobold colorspray yesterday (and a 1 is all I could fail against them with) and had my hiney handed to me (oh the shame). I then went back to the cave to pray to my tomb and hopefully rescue my ox (no chance) but while I was there the second time, I must have rolled 2 ones on the same ore deposit and lost 2 picks in a period of 1 minute (gaining no ore).

2) I was undoubtedly frustrated and decided, "what the heck, I might as well explore before NWN2 comes out and I miss my chance to see the world in NWN mode" but when I come upon scarecrows, my dumb summons runs out into the middle of them and is FEARed and just before my Claraudiance (or whichever one gives you immunity to mind effect spell goes off) my stupid summons runs back at me and the scarecrows fear me (rolling a 1 again). Hacked to ribbons...*weeps*

3) Undoubtedly really annoyed, I decide, "I better get the heck back to Hlint," and cut through the forest which I usually have no trouble, but oddly enough, I litterally get ambushed by dire spiders, and though some tree or something kept getting in my way, my summons killed all but one before he left and then I beating on the last spider but suddenly get poisoned two times in a row. I swear, I rolled a 1 and a 2 consecetively.

Did I mention it was a very bad day? Curse that dice roller, curses I say!!!  >:/

[Ar7]

Bad luck in crafting....can anybody take a guess how many emeralds can a character fail on 90% and 95% chance of success?

The answer is, 5 of your own and about 8 that belonged to others....transfer that to gold and you will find out how much bad luck in crafting is worth  :p

[Delta7]

I wish I knew how to post a screen shot. I just rolled 3 consecutive 1's in combat followed by a bunch of 2's 4's etc all under 10. I think I counted 15 straight rolls under 10. And three different times the numbers were back to back. I am convinced something is fishy...

[miltonyorkcastle]

just wait until you roll over a 15 for 10-20 consecutive rolls, then you'll feel better.  Though, the truth of it is, you only ever look at that thing when you're whiffing.  When you're hitting, you just watch the damage numbers roll off the baddy.

[SuperMunch]

I love probability, it always messes with folks...

When I was 13, I spent an afternoon rolling my d20s and taking notes to see if they were "loaded" (if you played PnP as a kid, you've probably done this) and I came up with a purple one that rolled the most 20s.

"w000t", thought the young Andre, "I got myself a winner".

Next game session, the die rolled a 1 on a saving throw and... err... forgot his name, the 16th level half-elven fighter, was no more.  Upset and with a very bad temper, I melted that die the next time I was at Shop while I laughed like a maniac... thus begining my "trust no die" policy.

Well, now that I've told the sad tale that almost got me a suspension (bringing me to the conclusion that earnest and convincing lies are the key to success)... let me tell you all a little secret to die rolls...

Each roll is an event upon itself.  No two rolls of the dice are ever, in any way, related.

This is obvious but it should give you some comfort.

You may roll five straight 1s.  It might seem improbable, but it's 5 times a simple 5% chance - the chances of it happening are remote, but it's not, in any way, impossible - in fact, it's as probable of getting five straight 15s (which I'm sure most wouldn't complain about).

Blame bad luck, blame Grympint for getting a 20 when crafting to make a pile of sawdust (exceptional saw dust, heh), blame some 20th level fighter's 20 on an attack on a goblin, etc.

Well seeded random numbers on computers are as close to random as you might get without counting on random phenomenoms of nature, so...  Enjoy!

Frankly, I feel blessed everytime I'm cursed...  Chopping wood and scoring a few 1s in a row makes me laugh and Freldo laughs along.  

[Weeblie]

It would be interesting to know what sort of random number generator NWN is using. A "really" random one like Mersenne Twister or a "normal" random one?

[OneST8]

I'm not even sure it could be considered "normal"! *chuckles*

[feniox]

I try not to pay attention to the rolls whilst playing in game now, I just chalk it down to a miss or a mistake and try not to get disheartened by those days when you can't even hit a rock of iron because you just rolled 5 1's in a row...

It's my PC dicebag during the quests that bothers me, I'm sure mine has a grudge against me for something I did in a past life