The Economy

[merlin34baseball]

The Economy in game...

*looks at the word Economy, that just doesn't look like its spelled right... oh well*

Anyone have thoughts on whats going on?  In Character it was brought up today with two members of two guilds.  They are having the same problems I seem to be having...

No one is buying anything.  These other two players have very established and reputable guilds.  For a while I just thought that it was odd that I went from selling maybe on average one or two things every couple of days to nothing.  As in I haven't sold a thing in weeks.  But hearing them talk this seems to be the case in general in the world.

Now I am tempted... VERY TEMPTED... to simply slash my prices, but I know what that means, upset people.  But if I can't sell anything at all at the "accepted prices" then to me that means that the "accepted prices" are no good anymore.

One of my thoughts on this is that the drops on central are killing the economy.  I mean I stop picking things up after a while on central because I can't carry anymore, or I already have so many of the items in crates that I don't need them anymore.  Anyone else see this as a problem?

I would appreciate anyones feedback on this.  If things keep going like they are the Twin Dragon Trade Goods is gonna have a fire sale and no one is going to be happy about it, but, if the "acceptable" standard prices are no good anymore then they aren't, simple as that.

Or if members from other guilds tell me I'm full of it and they are selling lots of stuff then I can accept that too, and look at our business practices, and see how we are failing.  But the two characters I talked to today are from two of the oldest most established guilds, and they seemed to agree that nothing was selling.

[lonnarin]

Make a batch of adamantium towershields and and announcement in the Tradehall that they're in stock.  Then you'll see the fury of 50+ assorted lvl 15+ fighters bashing down your door with their decade old iron shields.

[LynnJuniper]

I'd accredit it to

1) Drops on central

and 2) Exactly what you're supporting Tyrian, Independent crafting. Somehow I think people are suddenly more of the nature to make what they need themselves. More people are getting into crafting, or "crafting cliques" with their friends, each of them taking up one or two crafts and all of them supporting one another.

my 2 cents, or in your case, True .

...

*groans and goes to kill every pun in existence*

[Ravemore]

Although not a guild member, I agree. The only thing I have been able to sell on a regular basis are exceptional items, which take the majority of my game time to collect resources for. On central the drops of craftable items like armor and weapons are out the roof. I quickly fill up my inventory and end up holding them forever because the pawnshops are all broke because everyone else is doing the same thing. There are probably a billion different drops on the vault that can be used that do not require extensive balancing testing before implementation. I just think we should not be finding items on creatures we can be crafting. It's sort of like competing against another guild that gives all of their stuff away for free.... A little more gold for the public to freely spend might help too. Those of us who sell a lot of stuff can then begin offering smaller reductions in price to woo buyers instead of building up stock to the inevitable "fire sale."

[osxmallard]

I can only sell high value and rare items lately... addy weapons and armors are always good sellers though.  

The lower level stuff can be found as drops or easily made without too much effort by an independent crafter.  I have noticed the market for jewelry is very low right now (barely sell a +1 ring now, +2 not in much higher demand as you would expect).

So, this could just be a normal low in the cycle or lower level chars not realizing what sort of things are available and whom to purchase them from... could also be a lot of 'hand-me-downs' going on, which is also pretty tough on the economy.

[miltonyorkcastle]

Alright, from someone who still buys and sells on a consistent basis and is not in a guild, here's my perspective.

One, I've noticed a lot of independent crafters, as has been mentioned, especially when it comes to enchanting, which may be why you haven't seen much demand on lower level rings.

Two, Steel can't ever sell enough platinum and silver and also still sells other metals, copper included, so people are at least still buying raw goods, which means that someone somewhere is either keeping or selling stuff they make (I hope there's not a whole lot of just giving items away).

Third, and this pertains to the guild issue: I used to buy from guilds, but I've done so a lot less recently primarily because it's freakin' hard to track down guild members (especially if I don't know who they are), and half the time they don't even have the item I need. I've opted to find independents who are usually more workable to planning an exchange.

So, guilds, my suggestion of what might help bring business back your way is to have set "shop hours" that are advertised weekly, say, on the player calender. Say, maybe three days a week you're open for a two hour period. You could even advetise running lists of what's currently avaialable. This way, you don't have to track down buyers, and buyers don't have to track down guild members.

I used to love looking through Katrien's wares when the Arms was open, because I didn't have to go searching for her, and I could browse. I ended up buying several things from Katrien. Just like with any business, you have to make your product available and most importantly visible.

All you guilds out there that think you can't do this because you don't have a guild hall, blah, blah. Take a hint from Koppig the ale-selling half-giant. You can set up shop in the street with the help of a merchant setup you can buy from the general store.

If I knew there was a set time that I could show up and find an open shop, I'd buy from guilds more. so maybe it's not just that people are all making their own stuff, it may also be that there are lots of people who would buy if they knew who to get it from and when and where to go.

Now, on the matter of item drops. I, personally, thought the addition of the item drops were creative and nifty and really personalized the world. However, I have to agree that they just hit you in mass numbers.

My suggestion is to make all non-gold item drops extremely rare. I don't want to get rid of them, I just want them to be less plentiful. A lot less plentiful. Heck, I'd be fine with the amount of gold being dropped by monsters decreasing some as well. I think this might actually help the crafting economy in that we resort more to bartering than exchanges of stupid amounts of True. (do you know how big and heavy a sack filled with 40,000 gold coins is?). As it is, Steel pays for about half of what he buys with ore. But people can pay for things with boxes of aloe, or lion leathers, or even raw pelts. I am all in favor of raising the value of natural resources and increasing the barter of goods instead of gold.

[Interia_Discordius]

I personally think the gold drops are fine...But the item drops, I agree, can be decreased.

Economy wise, I stopped buying from guilds as often when I realized some independent crafters sold for things so much more cheap. No offense, but the best deal does prevail, and even a thousand can make a significant difference in painfully large buys.

[twidget658]

Prices and values change. What sold for so many coins a year ago does not mean it is worth that much now. If I offer to sell an item for say 20,000 and no one buys it...it is obviously not worth 20,000. An item is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. (Just look at the stock market.)

[Acacea]

Well, Layo's is a much smaller economy...with pretty much an infinite supply of gold, heh.

[stragen]

The average level of characters in Layonara is creeping upwards.  A year ago there were very few characters above level 20.  Now, there are many.  And many more in the 12-20 range.  Iron weapons armours and alexandrite rings are not going to be of interest to these characters.  This is why high value items are in demand.  The average crafting levels have also crept higher and hier.  As these characters can easily access the lower level craftable resources and produce finished products with ease, more products of the lower level abilities are appearing on the market.   There are more crafters and merchant guilds now then there was a year ago, selling more items to a smaller pool of low-level (and mid-level) characters.  If it's no longer rare then its is of little value and will sell slowly.  If it is rare then it will be bought fast and for a high price.  Emeralds anyone?

Also drop rate for iron weapons is pretty high at the moment. Heh!

Cheers,

Stragen

[ycleption]

I think this game is just too small for supply and demand to effectively control the economy. To counteract this, the powers that be have asked the merchants not to grossly undersell their merchandise, which is reasonable, as it protects smaller merchants who cannot afford to sell their wares cheaply. This presents the current problem however, that many buyers are unable or unwilling to buy things at "market" prices. Compounding the problem is that most craftable items (weapons, armor, jewelry, etc) that people buy, they only need to buy once, and those that are limited-use are prohibitively expensive to make. As others have mentioned, people supplying themselves, and drops probably don't help either. Many players, trying to be kind to the new folk, give them freebies, which certainly hurts sales (remember, in oreder for classical economics to work, everyone has to be greedy). Ironically, CNR seems to be the one thing that sells well, which if anything just pushes end-product prices higher.
Personally, (I will grant you I've only been trying to sell stuff for a few months, and am not terribly high level), I have spent far far more true making stuff than I have got back in sales. I keep on spnding time crafting more for RP reasons than because I hope to make any money off of it.
Economies, even game economies are tricky things, so I offer this suggestion with hesitancy, but I thinking easing up the pawn shop restrictions, and increasing the sell values might help (might also do other things, by increasing the amount of true in the world). But if crafters could make a reasonable amount from pawn shops, it might take items off the market, making crafted items a bit harder to come by, and thus more sellable.

[Chongo]

Ebbs and flows.

[Dorganath]

A couple of points:
 
In my opinion, the "market" prices are so over-inflated now it's not even funny.  Just look at the Trade and Market Hall forums with respect to some items which are being auctioned off for 5-10 times what they should sell for...and people will pay it because, as Acacea said, there's pretty much an infinite supply of gold, which really reduces its value for those who have over a certain amount.  I think the net effect there is that people who can will pay the "market" price, whatever it may be, and a guild is a fairly common way to do that.  Though after a point, there's no need to buy more of something because you already have the best stuff available.

Also, what happens is the rich will buy from whomever, while the poorer characters will look at guild prices and shudder.

Drops.  Yes, they're a bit in error, and this is known and should be addressed to a degree with the next update.  Apparently the random math of the old system and the random math of the new system don't seem to treat a particular percentage the same way. It's odd and will likely take some tuning, but we're getting it dialed in as best we can.  On a related note though, I'm always amused at how long people will go before reporting overly-generous drops, but as soon as they dry up, people mention it right away. That's not meant to sound or be accusatory, just an interesting pattern I've seen.  It would indeed be an interesting development if the drops have been cutting into the profits of guilds.  

Let's also keep in mind this is a period of economic, agricultural and emotional depression. While that is often difficult to represent in-game, it is happening everywhere in the world.  That guilds would be feeling the pinch is, in some ways, a good thing.

Now, having said what I said, and with all the good points above, part of the point of this game is fun. I don't know about you all, but I do to a large degree get plenty of exposure to real-world economics and let me tell you...I'm not having any fun with it at all.

My advice...sell what people want at a price they want to pay.  Maybe your margins will be less, but let's be honest here...we're not charging you for power, water and such, nor are there taxes.  Guilds and high-priced independents could probably afford a hit to their margins.

[twidget658]

Two, Steel can't ever sell enough platinum and silver and also still sells other metals, copper included, so people are at least still buying raw goods, which means that someone somewhere is either keeping or selling stuff they make.

 
 The ability to buy a mass amount of CNR allows the crafting levels to fly by. Before you know it, the crafter is now a master and can craft the high end items for him/herself.
 
 Why would you need to make 100 armors or what not? Easy...to advance in levels. This is fine and typically proportionate to the level of CNR a player can collect. However, a player buying a mass amount of CNR can advance higher and faster in crafting levels; thus, able to make the things he/she needs when their adventuring level is able to use the item.

[Black Cat]

I sell stuff and I try to align with guild prices.... but I'm open to bargaining... a good bargain session is much more fun than making zillion of gold that to be honest... I don't really need at the moment (and I'm not overly rich either... haven't buy items for a long time except CNR).

And I truly believe the drop in Central have somehow reduce economical activity from guild... before it was put in place, the Raven thread was on a rather constant basis on top of the threads with people asking for jewelery, armor or weapon... now...

Grohin has stopped collecting items (basic stuff... and even books or other lowly items) for a long time... even the higher ends ones he don't even try to sell or stock... he collect a few, enough to fill a box or two and make a pilgrimage to his temple and donate all the items to the temple... never even bothered to sell them as I personally believe that since the drops system is a bit off then it doesn't feel right to take advantage of it in a personal way...

[kuchida]

I agree with Stragen above, that not only are people higher levels than before but there's not a lot of new people joining. Yes some still do, but the majority of new characters are from older players who already know how to acquire the things they need (and either how to craft it themself or who to buy it from.) This isn't doom and gloom, it's a very healthy community and I don't think any regulars are going anywhere, but there just isn't a steady stream of low level types who might buy "lesser items".

The other problem, and this may not be correct at all, but I think not all crafters are focusing on the right things. There's only so many weapons and weapon enhancements any character needs in their lifetime. However a smart adventurer should be buying a nearly endless amount of things like missles, scrolls and potions.  I hate crafting myself (well, not hate, but it creeps very close to being "work", which is what i should be doing instead of playing Layo) so if and when I have money I'd love to have a steady and reliable source of disposable things.  Right now though I don't know where I'd buy them, or what crafter specializes in making those in large and reliable batches. I do know a lot of crafters who make ability rings and iron weapons and armor though..

This goes both ways of course.. More players should be aware that these things exist and how invaluable they can be (i mean come on, every fighter type should have a bull strength and invisibility potion on hand to get to their graves in case of emergency, or escape so that grave doesn't happen... And every shapechanger should have a huge stock of the non-throwing healing potions..  And restoration! What about restoration, no one ever seems to have it..)  Most are content with the arrows from the store, except those who rely on them who tend to just make them for themselves.  
Then there's wands, which are very useful but I rarely see used, and odd items that could be lifesavers (for example a cleric should made a fortune by scribing raise dead scrolls, for all those times someone dies and the cleric in the group doesn't have it ready..)

If there's a future for a continual economy on Layo I'd think this would be it.  Too many people are selling printers and no one is selling the ink. Or something like that.

[Talan Va'lash]

But if I can't sell anything at all at the "accepted prices" then to me that means that the "accepted prices" are no good anymore.

The problem is that on the very small scale we have here (players are the only consumers) is that supply and demand is irrelevant.

If you can't sell anything at accepted prices then you can't sell anything at all.

The issue is that there isn't demand. Supply far outstrips demand when 1/4 of the possible consumer pool of players are also suppliers (crafting.)

The (realworld) logic for reducing prices to boost sales is this: If someone is going to buy say, a box of chocolate there is a certain amount they're willing to spend on that. If chocolates are 1/2 price or maybe.. 60% of the usual price, people might buy two. Cause they'll eat them right? However, in layo, even if the price of Iron Longswords drops to 12 gp, no one is going to buy 60 of them.

Essentially this is durable goods vs consumables.

Someone might buy 60 potions if they drop in price but never 60 longwords for the same reasons you might buy 60 boxes of chocolate but you would never buy 60 dishwashers even if they dropped to 1/60th of their usual price.

[Polak76]

I agree with Dorg here.  
I remember a long time ago when things were much cheaper.
Actually after i had a break a while back I was looking forward to starting Alandric and purchasing a heap of spells, then I saw the cost these days for them.  I was angered slightly as I used to sell countless spells for much reasonable prices as did other mages three years back.

Anyway I also believe there are so many crafters around that sales are due to be stunted across the board.  I think the best thing you can do a make more usable things and make them effective if you wish to profit.

I personally will not purchase things unless I cannot craft them just to spite the costs that i witness these days.

Polak76

[kuchida]

I think there are some consumable things that would be in great demand if they were being regularly made and available in decent quantities, and if more players knew or remembered to use them..

Potions of invisibility (how can a fighter or rogue escape a losing fight without one? or get to their grave for that matter?) come to mind.. Or not-targeted heal potions which work quicker in a fight, and can be used when in a different shape..  I spend much more time than I like getting materials and making those not because I like alchemy (I'm not a crafter at heart.. its too close to work) but because I don't have a good way to buy them..

Or arrows and bolts.. Which are extremely consumable yet aren't regularly available, or if they are perhaps there's not the demand from players that there should be (I don't know)...

Basically.. What Talan said. A lot of crafting is to make stuff the average adventurer only needs to buy once. But there's a lot of very useful things like potions that everyone should be stocking up on all the time and aren't, and whether thats because crafters and guilds arent churning them out, or because people aren't buying them, I don't know.  Or if they are being made maybe it's a marketing issue.. But maybe it's those things that could really spark the economy?

[Kirbiana]

The explanation for the recent "recession" may be very simple.  With the house clean-up coming up, mid-level folks may be saving their money for a possible house purchase and so not be buying the gear that they normally would this month.