How do you know when you've P'd off you diety?

[Strykr]

While crafting your success rate is as follows.

85% chance of success 23 of 44 attempts succeeded.
55% chance of success 0 for 8 succeeded.
65% chance of success 0 for 3 succeeded.

Now how is that for terrible luck?

[osxmallard]

That's bad luck.  Try this...

How does 4 DT's (SS's) for 5 deaths at an 17-18% chance and perming out sound for luck?  

I really made Aeridin mad.  Lifegiver.  Ha.

[LynnJuniper]

Rhynn.

Ilsare.

I don't even need to explain it. if you play you know

[AeonBlues]

I would love to be your bookie right now!  One thing I know about long run odds, is that the long run is very long.  0 out of 8 sounds awful for a 55% chance.  The odds of losing a coin flip 8 times in a row is 1 in 256.  Failing the 65% 3 times is about a 1 in 27 shot.  so multipy those together, and that brings you up to 1 in  6912.  Now I know this is slopy math, don't nun of ya geniuses come after me on this!  My point is that even though this luck is horrendously bad, it still is a smudge stain, when you consider how much crafting goes on.  Someone, sometime, will make this out come look good!  They'll probably give up crafting before reaching their miserable potential of bad luck though.  In poker, I call this the reverse lottery effect.

Aeon

[DeadHead Fred]

Aren't these things supposed to average out?  So, since you rolled so badly, you should be due to roll well.  Go try to make lots of stuff with a 15% chance of success.  You can't miss!

Right?

DHF

[AeonBlues]

Unfortunately the recent past does not effect the near future in probability.  It takes tens of thousands of rolls before the long run resolves it's self to a statisticle average.

Aeon

[Strykr]

osxmallard - 7/18/2006  11:04 PM

That's bad luck.  Try this...

How does 4 DT's (SS's) for 5 deaths at an 17-18% chance and perming out sound for luck?  

I really made Aeridin mad.  Lifegiver.  Ha.

Do you mean to say Addison Scarlace is no more?!?  It can't be so.

[Dorganath]

AeonBlues - 7/19/2006  1:23 AM  Unfortunately the recent past does not effect the near future in probability.  It takes tens of thousands of rolls before the long run resolves it's self to a statisticle average.  Aeon

 While you yourself may not see a statistical averaging, if one looks at all the crafting rolls for all people across all servers, they do actually come out pretty even.

[Nyralotep]

Just remember that the closer to a crafting level you are the better the chance that murphy will mess with the roll, at least that's what I've experienced.  

[Faldred]

What I find amusing is that the randomness in the crafting rolls "seems" to follow patterns, even though I know they really don't.  It just seems like with certain tasks, I nearly never fail, regardless of percentage, and with others, I nearly never succeed.  Of course, whenever I really, really want a success (trying to make a particular finished product or an intermediate product needed for such), my failure chances go up in dramatic fashion -- Murphy's Law of crafting.

[Stephen_Zuckerman]

Eh... Statistically, the odds for each roll are ALWAYS exactly the same. They never actually have any guarantee that they'll even out... It's just much more probable that they will.

[Desicardo]

Actually, when looking at it from a pure statistical point of view, it doesn't matter at all what your previous rolls were when it comes to the odds on your next roll.  Even though you may have rolled 15 ones in a row on a 95% chance of success, the odds of rolling another one on your next attempt are still 1 in 20.  Hard concept to wrap around and one that continually P's me off, but each roll is done independantly so the odds remain the same regardless of attempts.  That said, I have noticed that numbers rolled tend to be cyclical in nature.  Low rolls a few times, then high rolls follow a few times.  I have tried testing the waters a few times by just standing in front of the crafting station and rolling 1d20 numerous times until I hit a high number then make my crafting attempt.  Sometimes works, but sometimes not.  I had a smelting attempt with 90% odds and rolled a 1, tried a 1d20 roll and rolled a 20, then made another attempt only to roll another 1.  Some days you just can't buy a good roll.  I have noticed that for some reason, rolls seem consistently lower when the server is busy soy you might want to try changing servers to one less active for big rolls.

[Stephen_Zuckerman]

So... Desicardo explained what I meant. Go him.

I have to second the statement about lag SEEMING to affect crafting rolls.

[Dorganath]

Remember guys that it is not just you rolling at any given time. It is not just your rolls that come out of the pseudo-random grab-bag of die rolls. At any given moment, there are plenty of die rolls of all different sorts being made on the server. Your own rolls get lumped in with everyone elses, whether they're crafting, in combat, trying to beat an enemy's spot/search/listen check with their own Hide/Move Silent check and so on.

[Zelda1]

Ash is a great example. She is very loyal to her deity.. Folian. But.
 She has 9 freakin' SS's.. So.     Yay.

[Faldred]

Zelda1 - 7/20/2006  2:03 AM

Ash is a great example. She is very loyal to her deity.. Folian. But.
 She has 9 freakin' SS's.. So.     Yay.

Maybe Folian just wants to bring the ever-loyal Ash nearer to her?  

[Shadowblade225]

Strykr - 7/19/2006  1:30 AM How do you know when you've P'd off your deity?

 
  When Leanther (as you're IG diety) starts hurling boulders at you.