Author Topic: Yep... (Read 2177 times)

Script Wrecked · « **on:** June 07, 2011, 10:39:13 AM »

[INDENT]Given your level, you have a 25% chance of successfully crafting this recipe:

You successfully made 1 item.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 15.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
You successfully made 1 item.
Failure. You rolled a 15.
Failure. You rolled a 13.
Failure. You rolled a 8.
Failure. You rolled a 13.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
Failure. You rolled a 8.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
Failure. You rolled a 4.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
Failure. You rolled a 13.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
Failure. You rolled a 1.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 3.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 2.
Failure. You rolled a 12.
You successfully made 1 item.
Failure. You rolled a 15.
Failure. You rolled a 7.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 11.
Failure. You rolled a 6.
Failure. You rolled a 9.
Failure. You rolled a 10.
You successfully made 1 item.
Failure. You rolled a 14.
Failure. You rolled a 7.
Failure. You rolled a 9.
Failure. You rolled a 5.
Failure. You rolled a 7.[/INDENT]

From 40 attempts, 4 successes. It should have been 10!

Maybe that should read "you have a 10% chance of successfully crafting this recipe", or, "you have a 40% chance of the reported 25% chance of actually crafting this recipe". :rolleyes:

[SIZE=10](yes, I'm having a bleat; it makes me feel better)[/SIZE]

gilshem ironstone · « **Reply #1 on:** June 07, 2011, 01:56:41 PM »

10% of the time. It works all the time.

ShiffDrgnhrt · « **Reply #2 on:** June 07, 2011, 02:58:56 PM »

Do remember you have a 25% chance each attempt. It is no guarantee you will successfully craft 25% of what you attempt to make.

gilshem ironstone · « **Reply #3 on:** June 07, 2011, 04:10:13 PM »

But having 40 attempts can certainly raise your expectations.

Gulnyr · « **Reply #4 on:** June 07, 2011, 04:25:24 PM »

Statistically speaking, forty attempts is actually a small sample. It feels terrible subjectively to get so few successes, but it's not really anomalous. I failed two of four heal potions at 90% chance of success just before the Stormcry Hollows event. Deep down I know that rolling two 1's isn't really all that improbable, but it's just improbable enough to feel like a malicious consciousness was behind it all. *shakes a fist*

jrizz · « **Reply #5 on:** June 07, 2011, 04:33:04 PM »

And this is why I don't really miss crafting

RollinsCat · « **Reply #6 on:** June 07, 2011, 04:38:39 PM »

but then there is that streak at impossibly low percent chances - say, seven tries on pie at twenty and thirty percent, and making five of them - that keeps you coming back and jiggling the slot handle again and again...

Acacea · « **Reply #7 on:** June 07, 2011, 04:43:13 PM »

Yeah. Or enchanting your circlet at 10% and seriously ticking everyone off!

Unless you are an infuser. Most pointless gambling craft in the universe (I am considering what goes in, not just what comes out!). "YES success at 20%! I get ... eh."

jrizz · « **Reply #8 on:** June 07, 2011, 06:46:59 PM »

Quote from: Acacea

Yeah. Or enchanting your circlet at 10% and seriously ticking everyone off!

Unless you are an infuser. Most pointless gambling craft in the universe (I am considering what goes in, not just what comes out!). "YES success at 20%! I get ... eh."

I have no idea what you are talking about but you make me want to know

Filatus · « **Reply #9 on:** June 07, 2011, 06:51:16 PM »

Still remember the time Reventage had Daeron prepare an Acid Enhancement IV. It was only the second emerald he ever touched and she was watching as he made an attempt at less than 100 %. Don't much cared about bad rolls ever since, since at least he didn't fail -that- one.

gilshem ironstone · « **Reply #10 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:03:54 PM »

Are there serious consequences to failure around Reventage? Or you just hate seeing an emerald go poof! Both?

Acacea · « **Reply #11 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:08:09 PM »

I dunno heh, kind of like if Plenarius dumped a load of mithril on you, asked for a set of full plate at non-trivial crafting levels, and then also stood over your shoulder to watch.

Plus she had a really big hammer.

Filatus · « **Reply #12 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:11:22 PM »

Hah yeah, that and Daeron always was intimidated by her.

Dorax Windsmith · « **Reply #13 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:11:28 PM »

I've been on some serious crafting "binges" during my time here on Layo and I've seen both sides of the dice. I do like improving the odds with larger samples though. If I have less than a 50% chance, I usually try to have enough materials for 4 attempts, that way you have something like a 95% chance of making at least one item, statistically speaking.

Masterjack · « **Reply #14 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:29:21 PM »

I had 4 pieces of mahogany with a 30% chance of turning them to arrow shafts. I only failed one out of four attempts.

Acacea · « **Reply #15 on:** June 07, 2011, 07:32:08 PM »

This is the worst commiseration thread I've ever seen! Tone down the optimism here, people!

Script Wrecked · « **Reply #16 on:** June 07, 2011, 11:18:35 PM »

Quote from: Gulnyr

Statistically speaking, forty attempts is actually a small sample.

But it is a lot of CNR.

Don't the statisticians say you have to sample 1085 people to be 95% sure of getting a representative outcome?

Script Wrecked · « **Reply #17 on:** June 07, 2011, 11:50:57 PM »

Quote from: ShiffDrgnhrt

Do remember you have a 25% chance each attempt. It is no guarantee you will successfully craft 25% of what you attempt to make.

Yes, but that's what it should mean, otherwise its effectively meaningless.

Gulnyr · « **Reply #18 on:** June 08, 2011, 12:44:55 AM »

Quote from: Script Wrecked

But it is a lot of CNR.

That's why it feels so bad. It's only forty rolls, but it's ages of gathering. *shakes a fist again, just because*

xsweetpeaxs · « **Reply #19 on:** June 08, 2011, 09:34:22 AM »

On a side note, I notice that when you roll 1's during crafting, you don't roll 1's when you happen to roll against the Soul Mother.

The way I look at it is this.... those 1's are offering so that when I have to roll to save against Soul Mother, I have better rolls! LOL

I know it is superstitious but *shrugs* just something I notice and would like those 1's to mean something