Unfortunately, from Orth's link, I only get a grey screen with a box titled "Distribution of Layonara Crafting Dice Rolls".
I have failed 5 times in a row on 80% success, it happens
The only sad thing in this is that, the rolls gets distributed across the whole server. 1 it makes the % that you see of your chances of success skewed. 2 it doesn't reflect a very balanced system. When someone makes a painting, his chance of making it right is not affected by 20 other people painting at the same time around the world. I know that unfortunately it's probably some coded thing in the core system of the game. But it is still sad.
1 | 45953 - 5.013%2 | 45591 - 4.974%3 | 45469 - 4.961%4 | 45877 - 5.005%5 | 45970 - 5.016%6 | 45742 - 4.991%7 | 45544 - 4.969%8 | 45665 - 4.982%9 | 45901 - 5.008%10 | 45926 - 5.011%11 | 45771 - 4.994%12 | 46076 - 5.027%13 | 45560 - 4.971%14 | 46142 - 5.034%15 | 46425 - 5.065%16 | 45714 - 4.988%17 | 45787 - 4.996%18 | 45810 - 4.998%19 | 45765 - 4.993%20 | 45859 - 5.003%
But I'm not refering to the probability of any particular outcome. I'm refering to the average of all outcomes.
For a normal RNG, it has no bearing if you have "your own RNG" or "you are sharing RNG output with others". Just because the previous roll was a 20 (for someone else) does not mean that the chance for the roll after (for you) to also be a 20 is far less than the chance of it being a 4.The NWN RNG is very unlikely to be cryptographically secure as it is "half proven" to have a somewhat faulty seeding mechanism. But that is not related to what you just mentioned.So, in summary, do you have any proof at all that the rolls of others (or your own previous rolls) have any meaningful impact on the "future" rolls? In this case, meaningful means that the rolls outputted would be less pseudo random than they otherwise would have been (i.e. compared to if you had your "own" RNG).
% TRY EXPECT ACT DIFF--- --- ------ --- ------ 15 6 0.90 2 1.10 20 5 1.00 2 1.00 25 91 22.75 20 -2.75 30 49 14.70 13 -1.70 35 564 197.40 200 2.60 40 167 66.80 74 7.20 45 608 273.60 306 32.40 50 332 166.00 165 -1.00 55 799 439.45 444 4.55 60 367 220.20 224 3.80[COLOR=Blue] 65 745 484.25 470 -14.25[/COLOR] 70 118 82.60 76 -6.60 75 632 474.00 472 -2.00 80 7 5.60 6 0.40 85 288 244.80 240 -4.80 90 46 41.40 44 2.60 95 158 150.10 147 -3.10100 604 604.00 603 -1.00
100 604 604.00 603 -1.00