Author Topic: New Dice Please (Read 161 times)

curtwise · « **on:** October 12, 2006, 09:49:55 pm »

I seriously would like to know out of the rolls that i made on 10/12/06 between around 8:30 to 10: 00 pm PDT
how many were over 6 or even over 10? I've tried to look at my dice several times to see if there are any numbers over 10?

The next best thing to do is please dont show me the number i roll so i need not wonder why only 1 and 5's show up? I would rather it just be win or lose...but to aguish over each losing number....dang!

I am using a 1D20 right?

Pseudonym · « **Reply #1 on:** October 12, 2006, 10:42:48 pm »

Aaaah, curtwise, I do believe you found my d20 that I use every time I visit the craft halls!

I'd love someone who is mathematically minded to tell me what the odds are for successfully crafting something but 1 in 13 times when I had a 40% chance of doing it?!!?

Guardian 452 · « **Reply #2 on:** October 12, 2006, 10:50:00 pm »

the joys of d20

*waits for L to come sing the praises of D20*

CHAzz · « **Reply #3 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:05:07 pm »

also keep in mind the dreaded RNG. It isn't really all that random, its more "random".

Weeblie · « **Reply #4 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:33:53 pm »

A lot of people is doubting that the random number generator is so very "random" in the short term. Maybe a implemention problem? Or maybe something else?

But, as logged on a specific page (can't remember it on top of my head for the moment), in the long run, the rolls do even out. Oh, the page is for the crafting rolls.

crazedgoblin · « **Reply #5 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:40:24 pm »

if you really want something crafted it will make you fail but if you don't need it at all it will succseed, simple logic

Weeblie · « **Reply #6 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:49:29 pm »

Yes! That's sooo true!

I'm glad someone else is confirming this!

LordCove · « **Reply #7 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:50:30 pm »

The rolls do even out. I started Gem crafting, with a 30% chance of success, and ended up making 6 rings successfully.....one after the other.

Needless to say, I praised my loaded 1D20 and placed it on the alter to Folian.

Polak76 · « **Reply #8 on:** October 12, 2006, 11:51:59 pm »

I rekon I'm the master of bad rolls! Truely!!

Most of my mates online can probably tell you how many times I've almost put my fist through the gyprock or screamed in frustration (all OOC naturally).
Stupid thing is I still actually enjoy crafting...go figure that out!!

Anyway I've asked people if there are flaws, if there are any tips for better rolls etc.
I've had some people state that you need to wait a while before clicking the final 'craft-it'. I've had people rekon you need to make practice rolls, twice on the dice bag before attempting a craft. You name it I rekon I've tried it.

The only thing I am certain of is that I have my best luck at 60%. Yes, that is correct!! The minute i hit 70% it's time to bite my fingernails with every click of the 'Craft It". Now it could simply be a trend with me but 60's the number.

As for saving throws and skill checks...hahahaha...it doesnt change much there either. But that usually makes for interesting events or great laughter.

Cheers,
Polak76

Pseudonym · « **Reply #9 on:** October 13, 2006, 12:02:10 am »

Quote

Polak76 - 10/13/2006 4:51 PM

As for saving throws and skill checks...hahahaha...it doesnt change much there either. But that usually makes for interesting events or great laughter.

I hear you. The day I roll over a 3 for a bluff check is the day I go and buy my sure-to-be-the-winner lotto ticket!!!

How can AI such as the Random Number Generator have such an evil sense of humour?

Weeblie · « **Reply #10 on:** October 13, 2006, 12:07:12 am »

Very interesting, Polak76. I usually find my best rolls at 70%.

(Erh... not counting with 100%, of course

)

Talan Va'lash · « **Reply #11 on:** October 13, 2006, 12:35:22 am »

Quote

Pseudonym - 10/12/2006 11:42 PM

Aaaah, curtwise, I do believe you found my d20 that I use every time I visit the craft halls!

I'd love someone who is mathematically minded to tell me what the odds are for successfully crafting something but 1 in 13 times when I had a 40% chance of doing it?!!?

That one is a bit of work so I'll give you one thats easier. The chances of failing 12 in a row at 40% are 4096 in 244140625.

The NWN random number generator does average out pretty well but methinks it does this by when it gets too far to one side (rolled a lot of lows or highs) it forces high or low rolls to get its average back on track heh.

Hence the critical miss or critical hit bursts you'll see in combat from time to time. This is more noticable on hardcore rules where monsters can crit on you (you really notice it when a band of orcs lands 4 crits in a row on you heh.)

Edit: I'm wrong thats succeeding at 12 in a row at 40% failing would be 531441 in 244140625 so not AS bad but still 0.002176782336 to 1. I wouldn't bet on those odds.

Trip1888 · « **Reply #12 on:** October 13, 2006, 03:56:15 am »

At least we have the random number generator, flawed though it is *wink* (my d20 is loaded to get only 3's and 4's

). It's better than rolling a d20 in RL, taking a picture of it, then submitting it on the forums, waiting for a GM to check, then signing back in and a GM handing you the finished product (or taking your supplies away). I do believe that there would be no crafters left if that was our system.

Honora · « **Reply #13 on:** October 13, 2006, 04:08:56 am »

Be mindful of how many people are on when you're rolling...as our group of 15 on quest a while back can tell you, fewer people do funny things to the RNG. Like, say, rolling saves and four people getting 1's...in a row....

Faldred · « **Reply #14 on:** October 13, 2006, 04:39:15 am »

Quote

crazedgoblin - 10/13/2006 2:40 AM

if you really want something crafted it will make you fail but if you don't need it at all it will succseed, simple logic

The more deadly the trip is to get the CNR, the more likely you muff your crafting roll.

Weeblie · « **Reply #15 on:** October 13, 2006, 04:46:18 am »

The problem is those successes... If one succeeds 6 50% things in row, one starts to think "Great!" and not "Awww! the RNG is broken!".

LordCove · « **Reply #16 on:** October 13, 2006, 04:55:54 am »

....meanwhile.....while youv'e got your 6 50% successes.....some poor bugger somewheres just getten 6 80% failures.
The Smart vs Dumb balance must weigh out. *chuckles*

Serissa · « **Reply #17 on:** October 13, 2006, 05:34:29 am »

Kill the Roll Hogger!!

LynnJuniper · « **Reply #18 on:** October 13, 2006, 05:36:57 am »

Which is why when I make a bronze sheild at 15% on Shri, I shake my head sadly and think

"some poor sod somewhere just lost a soul strand"

Dorganath · « **Reply #19 on:** October 13, 2006, 05:38:26 am »

I had my character's dicebag replaced at least once after a particularly bad string of rolls on a quest or two. Sadly, the replacements must have come from the same batch, because they're all pretty much rotten.
I borrowed someone else's dice once and rolled two 20's in a row once...but then they revolted and ran back to their owner.